Thomas de Waal
It would be foolhardy to predict the course of the war in Ukraine and events in Russia over the next year. One thing is certain, however: The Russian state is already weaker than it was before February 2022 and will get weaker in many aspects: economically; from the loss of human capital; and in terms of its global standing and international capacities. Thomas de Waal's proposal is to write a close analysis of Russia's weaknesses as exposed by the Ukraine war. He will consider some "extreme scenarios" and how these would affect the country's internal cohesion as a federal state and the implications for its post-Soviet neighbors.