If Europeans expected Trump’s second term to bring a further toughening of Washington’s China policy and an increased focus on the Indo-Pacific, they have instead faced a far more confusing picture. From semiconductor sales to Taiwan to tariffs, Europe has been uncertain whether to expect deals or escalation, leaving it stuck navigating the fallout either way. This talk will decipher where US policy is heading, how China has played these dynamics to its advantage, and whether Europe is capable of dealing simultaneously with the challenges posed by a “second China shock” to its industries, Chinese backing of Russia, and Beijing’s drastic rare-earth export restrictions.
Andrew Small is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the incoming Asia director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He was a China fellow in the advisory service to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, where he also worked on the EU task force preparing for the Trump presidency. His last book, The Rupture (Hurst Publishers, 2022), about the transformation of US and European policy on China, was named one of the political books of the year by The Financial Times.
Ivan Krastev, IWM Albert Hirschman Permanent Fellow, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion following the talk.
