The world stands at a historic turning point where the international order established in 1945 is tilting. As the era of “naive globalization“ fades, a piercing question emerges: who controls whom in today’s interconnected system?
Geopolitics today is structured less by isolated crises than by the interaction of several systemic rivalries. It finds its most vivid expression through high-stakes, personal duels. The existential struggle between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the fate of Ukraine, the ideological friction between Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen regarding the transatlantic alliance, and the battle for the future of humanity between the Vatican and Silicon Valley serve as primary examples. These rivalries expose a reality in which raw power dynamics increasingly eclipse legal frameworks.
For Europe, the situation is one of critical urgency. The continent currently faces a triple pressure: military and technological heat from the United States, industrial competition from China, and direct aggression from Russia. Europe has the necessary potential—that is, the economic means, military capabilities, and technological expertise—to face off against Russia by 2030, provided it demonstrates the political will to do so. It is no longer sustainable for 510 million Europeans to depend on 340 million Americans for their safety while facing a Russia that has explicitly chosen war.
Beyond traditional borders, technology’s forward momentum and the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence are acting as major disruptors of the global balance. In this environment, conflict and competition structure international relations. Identifying rare spaces for potential cooperation requires recognizing the gravity of the moment and the narratives shaping the future.
Thomas Gomart has been director of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) since 2015. He is a member of the scientific committee at the Institute of Advanced Studies in National Defense (IHEDN) and the editorial board of the French journals Politique étrangère, Revue des deux mondes, and Études. Gomart was also a member of the French Ministry of Armed Forces’ strategic review committee for the 2017 Strategic Review of Defense and National Security. His most recent book is Qui contrôle qui? Les nouveaux rapports de force mondiaux (Paris: Tallandier, 2026). Gomart has also authored L’accélération de l’histoire. Les nœuds géostratégiques d’un monde hors de contrôle (Paris: Tallandier, 2024), Les ambitions inavouées. Ce que préparent les grandes puissances (Paris: Tallandier, 2023), L’Affolement du monde (Paris: Tallandier, 2019), and Guerres invisibles (Paris: Tallandier, 2021). He received his EMBA from the Hautes Études Commerciales de Paris and his PhD from the Panthéon-Sorbonne University. Gomart has been awarded the rank of Knight of the National Order of Merit.
Ivan Krastev, IWM Albert Hirschman Permanent Fellow, will moderate the discussion.
